70% of Global Cocoa Grown in Climate-Vulnerable Regions: Building Climate-Resilient and Compliant Cocoa Supply Chains

Editor’s Note:

The global cocoa sector is entering a period of structural transformation. Climate volatility, regulatory enforcement, supply instability, and growing expectations for responsible sourcing are reshaping how cocoa is produced, traded, and governed across international markets. At the same time, persistent income fragility at origin continues to constrain producers’ ability to invest in climate resilience, social safeguards, and long-term farm productivity. This article reflects insights from discussions during CHOCOA 2026 and the World Cocoa Foundation Partnership Meeting in Amsterdam from our Senior Head of Markets EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa), Fanny Butler, where stakeholders across the cocoa and chocolate value chain examined how the sector can move beyond isolated sustainability initiatives toward coordinated, system-level reform. Drawing on these dialogues, the article outlines six interconnected foundations, ranging from regenerative landscape management and child protection systems to digital traceability infrastructure and financial inclusion, that together form a pathway toward a more resilient and future-ready cocoa ecosystem.

Executive Summary

• The global cocoa sector is facing a structural inflection point shaped by climate stress, regulatory acceleration, and chronic income fragility at origin. The 2024 price surge, from roughly USD 3,500–4,000 per tonne to nearly USD 12,000, did not reflect sectoral strength but exposed long-standing structural vulnerabilities including aging trees, erratic rainfall, disease pressure, and decades of underinvestment (The Cocoa Barometer, 2025).

• CHOCOA 2026 and the World Cocoa Foundation Partnership Meeting reflected a sector-wide shift from isolated sustainability commitments toward coordinated, system-level transformation. Under the theme “Securing Cocoa’s Future in a Changing World,” discussions emphasized that climate adaptation, child protection, regulatory compliance, modernization, and innovation can no longer operate in silos. Instead, long-term viability depends on integrating environmental resilience, social safeguards, data governance, financial stability, and market incentives within a coherent value chain architecture.

• From these dialogues, six interconnected foundations emerged as critical to securing cocoa’s future: regenerative landscape design to address climate and deforestation risk; integrated child labour monitoring aligned across public and private systems; continuous producer capability development; interoperable digital traceability infrastructure; financial inclusion mechanisms that reduce structural vulnerability; and market recognition models that translate verified sustainability and quality into competitive advantage.

A Threefold Price Surge: Cocoa Volatility as a Structural Warning

USD 12,000 per tonne. That was the peak reached by global cocoa prices in April 2024, nearly four times higher than the USD 3,500–4,000 range recorded just months earlier, and far above a long term historical average of USD 2,000–3,000 per tonne. While the surge drew global attention, it did not signal renewed sectoral strength. Instead, it exposed deep structural weaknesses across the cocoa value chain.

As highlighted in the Cocoa Barometer 2025 by the VOICE Network, the global cocoa sector is undergoing a period of structural recalibration shaped by converging climate stress, regulatory enforcement, and persistent income fragility at origin. The industry faces a systemic imbalance shaped by climate stress, underinvestment, persistent producer poverty, and fragile governance structures.

Rather than signaling sectoral strength, this volatility reflected supply shortages driven by aging trees, erratic rainfall, disease pressure, and years of insufficient reinvestment at origin. Such fluctuations underscore the structural vulnerability of a value chain that is increasingly exposed to climate disruption and supply concentration risk (The Cocoa Barometer, 2025). 

Cocoa at an Inflection Point: Climate, Regulation, and Income Fragility

The cocoa sector is now operating within a convergence of pressures that reinforce one another. Climate volatility is reducing yield predictability. At the same time, regulatory shifts, such as the EUDR and CSRD, FSMA, CSDDD, etc are raising expectations around traceability, data integrity, and risk mitigation. Yet many cocoa-producing households continue to operate below living income benchmarks, limiting their ability to absorb shocks, adopt innovation, or strengthen social safeguards. Climate disruption, regulatory transformation, modernization pressures, and supply instability are therefore converging, creating a moment that demands coordinated action across the full value chain.

From Fragmented Initiatives to Integrated Systems

For years, sustainability in cocoa has been pursued through parallel initiatives: certification programs, pilot agroforestry projects, monitoring systems, and standalone financial interventions. While many of these efforts have delivered localized impact, their fragmentation has limited system-wide transformation.

Across the sector, a broader shift in thinking is now emerging. The focus is moving away from isolated interventions toward connected systems, approaches that align environmental resilience, social protection, digital infrastructure, financial stability, and market incentives within a single value chain logic. This shift reflects growing recognition that cocoa’s challenges are structurally interdependent, and that progress in one area cannot be sustained without coordination across others.

Recent industry discussions have reinforced this perspective, highlighting the need for greater interoperability between traceability systems, social monitoring frameworks, and national governance mechanisms, as well as stronger alignment between regulatory expectations and on‑the‑ground realities at origin . This dialogue was evident at CHOCOA 2026 and the World Cocoa Foundation Partnership Meeting convened in Amsterdam, where Koltiva was represented by its Co‑Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Manfred Borer, and Hugo Bitouze, Business Development Officer. Rather than debating whether sustainability efforts are necessary, the conversation has increasingly centered on how these efforts can be integrated, scaled, and operationalized in a way that delivers lasting impact. The gathering examined how the sector can adapt to climate volatility, evolving due diligence requirements, supply constraints, and shifting consumer expectations while maintaining long-term viability.

This systems‑level perspective also shaped discussions on social protection. At the WCF Partnership Meeting, Koltiva’s Head of Market EMEA, Fanny Butler, highlighted the importance of interoperability between national child labour monitoring mechanisms and private‑sector remediation frameworks. Rather than treating child protection as a standalone compliance requirement, the emphasis was placed on embedding safeguarding within broader data governance and traceability architectures to enable coordinated and preventative action. During the breakout session “Connected for Change: Public & Private Synergy to End Child Labour,” Fanny discussed ” on how national child labour monitoring systems (SOSTECI and GCLMS) with private-sector Child Labour Monitoring and Remediation Systems (CLMRS) being implemented in cocoa producing countries, raising concerns how these systems being integrated to create a more unified, interoperable framework for child protection and traceability within cocoa supply chains (World Cocoa Foundation, 2026).

Taken together, the discussions throughout CHOCOA 2026 and the WCF Partnership Meeting pointed to a broader structural insight. The sector is no longer debating isolated sustainability initiatives. Instead, the dialogue reflected a transition toward coordinated systems capable of aligning environmental resilience, social safeguards, and market reform within one coherent architecture.

Six Integrated Foundations for Responsible Cocoa Supply Chain

The cocoa sector is undergoing a structural transition. The sector is shifting toward coordinated systems where long-term resilience depends on aligning productivity, equity, and market reform. We conclude that there are at least six interconnected foundations emerged as central to securing cocoa’s future. These pillars are not standalone interventions, but mutually reinforcing components of a resilient and future-ready ecosystem.

1.      Landscape Resilience Through Regenerative Management Practices

The first foundation begins at the landscape level, where climate volatility and regulatory pressure now converge. Critical cocoa-producing regions, such as Central and West Africa, including Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire account for 70% of global cocoa production (Asante et al., 2025), and are increasingly exposed to rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and soil degradation, while frameworks such as the Deforestation Regulation require verifiable proof of deforestation-free production. Agroforestry is emerging as one of the most powerful yet underutilized natural climate solutions. A review published in Nature Climate Change (2023) identifies agroforestry as having climate mitigation potential comparable to reforestation, positioning it among the most significant contributions agriculture can make toward global climate goals. Beyond mitigation, diversified systems improve yield stability, restore soil quality, enhance biodiversity, and protect producers and crops from extreme heat and weather shocks.

However, impact depends on design and adoption. Effective agroforestry must be producer-centred, adapted to local agroecological conditions, and built on ecological synergy rather than one-size-fits-all models. In Aceh, Indonesia, a project implemented by Koltiva translated this principle into practice through 10 regenerative demonstration plots within the Leuser buffer zone, each integrating cacao with diversified shade species and supported by continuous monitoring. By June 2025, 403 producers had been reached through structured training and coaching, advising planting schemes of 600 cocoa seedlings and 200 shade trees per hectare, with women representing 30 percent of participants. These interventions were guided by a baseline regenerative agriculture assessment that recorded an average score of 52 out of 100, allowing measurable progress over time. When regenerative design is combined with capacity building and digital monitoring, agroforestry moves from concept to verifiable climate action, laying the groundwork for resilient and deforestation-free supply chains (Koltiva, 2026).

2.  Strengthening Social Protection and Child Safeguards

Environmental resilience, however, cannot be sustained without social protection. During the WCF breakout session, the discussion on child labour highlighted both the urgency and the complexity. Reflecting on the session, Fanny Butler emphasised that ending child labour in the cocoa supply chain is achievable, but far from simple.

The critical challenge lies in 2 aspects. The first one is harmonizing all the collected databases that already exists among different stakeholders. The second one is creating the enabling conditions for collaboration: convening all actors around shared objectives, ensuring legal clarity and safeguards for data sharing, and implementing proactive, targeted interventions that effectively accelerate the elimination of child labour,” Fanny explained.

Accordingly, working with partners that implemented Koltiva’s CLMRS system, aligned with the International Cocoa Initiative frameworks in Côte d’Ivoire and Indonesia, demonstrated how structured data and case management can support more targeted monitoring and remediation of child labour cases.  Yet, Fanny continued that meaningful reduction depends on broader alignment between national systems and private monitoring frameworks.

3.    Building Producer Capability for Long-Term Sustainability

Connected to one another, strengthening environmental and social outcomes strongly depends on producer capability that needs knowledge update overtime. Koltiva integrates regenerative agriculture, Good Agricultural Practices (GAP), safeguarding principles, and digital record keeping into structured training that connects productivity with compliance and resilience. One example lies in resource efficiency. Cocoa production generates significant organic waste, as approximately 75 percent of the cacao pod, including husks, pulp, and shells, is discarded during processing (CarbonClick, 2023). When left unmanaged, this waste can create environmental inefficiencies. However, when properly repurposed, it can improve soil health, increase organic matter, reduce dependence on external inputs, and lower production costs. By training producers to convert cocoa byproducts into compost and soil amendments, regenerative practices move from theory to measurable economic and environmental benefit.

In practice, our experience implementing regenerative agriculture practices with producers shows that effective adoption often depends on continuous coaching and participatory learning. Capacity-building programs through our boots on the ground approach, KoltiSkills, combines this transition through participatory Farmer Field Schools and on-farm coaching, enabling producers to apply regenerative techniques, optimize planting systems, and embed safeguarding awareness into daily farm management. As highlighted during the WCF discussions, resilient cocoa systems require inclusive innovation and coordinated action. When producers understand the technical, financial, and compliance rationale behind improved practices, sustainability becomes operational logic rather than external obligation, strengthening both long-term resilience and supply chain integrity.

4.      Advancing Digital Traceability and Data Governance

As production practices evolve at origin, digital infrastructure becomes a structural prerequisite rather than a technical add-on. Supply chains are now expected to demonstrate geolocation precision, risk assessment documentation, social monitoring evidence, and transaction-level traceability in increasingly standardized formats. Yet while traceability systems are proliferating, fragmentation remains a central challenge. The cocoa supply chain is highly fragmented, with much of the sourcing occurring through informal intermediaries. In Côte d’Ivoire, for example, around 60 percent of cocoa remained untraced in the 2024/25 season.

This lack of transparency weakens accountability for deforestation and environmental risk, and constrains the sector’s ability to monitor social safeguards effectively. At the same time, global cocoa trade is concentrated among a small group of dominant actors, with seven companies controlling a significant share of international trade and sourcing primarily from Côte d’Ivoire and Ghana. When traceability gaps persist at origin, they therefore affect a substantial portion of global supply. Multiple platforms, public registries, certification databases, and private monitoring systems often operate in parallel without interoperability, limiting the ability to translate data into coordinated decision-making. The question is no longer whether data is being collected, but whether it is integrated, validated, and actionable across actors (The Cocoa Barometer, 2025). In this context, traceability is evolving from a compliance requirement into critical infrastructure for responsible cocoa governance.

Strong data governance therefore underpins credible sustainability. Koltiva’s  technology functions as a core digital infrastructure layer that connects farm geolocation mapping, deforestation risk screening, social monitoring records, and transaction traceability into one coherent architecture. By structuring information at farm level and linking it to downstream commercial flows, the system enables climate indicators, child protection data, and compliance documentation to operate within a unified framework rather than in isolated silos.

5.      Reinforcing Financial Stability at Origin

However, data integrity alone does not secure resilience. Economic stability remains a critical reinforcing factor. The Cocoa Barometer has repeatedly emphasized that producer poverty forms the trunk of the sector’s “problem tree,” with environmental degradation and human rights risks branching outward from income fragility. Financial vulnerability constrains producers’ capacity to reinvest in farm rehabilitation, adopt regenerative practices, or implement safeguarding measures. Without predictable liquidity, sustainability expectations can become structurally misaligned with on-the-ground realities.

Addressing financial vulnerability therefore requires mechanisms that connect traceability, payments, and financial access within the same supply chain infrastructure. Through a producer-first e-wallet app called KoltiPay, currently operational in Indonesia and expanding to other countries, Koltiva integrates transparent digital payment systems with structured financial services that support input access and transaction visibility. By digitizing payment flows and strengthening financial traceability at origin, producers gain clearer income records and improved access to working capital, while supply chain actors benefit from enhanced transparency. Financial inclusion in this context is not a parallel initiative; it strengthens the integrity of traceability systems and reduces the structural pressures that contribute to social and environmental risk.

6.      Translating Sustainability into Market Value

Ultimately, sustainability must translate into tangible market advantages if producers are to sustain investments in climate adaptation, social safeguards, and traceable systems over the long term. When responsible practices do not yield improved pricing, stronger commercial partnerships, or enhanced market access, they risk being perceived as compliance costs rather than strategic investments. The credibility of sustainability efforts therefore depends not only on environmental and social performance, but also on whether markets recognize and reward that performance. It is at this intersection between responsible production and commercial return that quality recognition becomes decisive, linking sustainability outcomes to measurable competitive value.

This dynamic was reflected during the Cacao of Excellence Awards held as part of Amsterdam Cocoa Week. The awards serve as an international benchmark for quality and origin differentiation, highlighting producers who demonstrate excellence in cultivation, fermentation, and post-harvest practices. Increasingly, such recognition is also associated with greater transparency around sourcing conditions, including traceability and responsible production practices that allow buyers to verify origin integrity and sustainability claims.

One example is PT Kudeungoe Sugata, a cocoa producer in Aceh and partner of Koltiva, which received the Gold Award at the Cacao of Excellence Awards in February 2026 following its inclusion among the Best 50 cacao samples in 2025. Beyond product quality, this recognition reflects a broader combination of factors increasingly valued by international buyers: direct engagement with producers in key growing regions, mapped farms and lot integrity, traceability from origin to shipment, and the integration of ethical and socially responsible practices within local communities.

Reflecting on the broader discussions throughout the week, Manfred Borer noted that the direction of the sector is moving toward supply chains where quality, traceability, and responsible sourcing are embedded together rather than addressed separately.  

In conclusion, the sector’s transition will be defined not by new commitments alone, but by whether environmental restoration, social safeguards, data governance, financial inclusion, and market recognition operate as coordinated systems. From landscape resilience to child protection, from digital traceability to producer capability and global quality differentiation, these interconnected foundations together form a practical pathway toward a more resilient and future-ready cocoa ecosystem.

Author: Carlene Putri Darius, Marketing Communications Officer at KOLTIVA

Subject Matter Experts: Fanny Butler, Senior Head of Markets EMEA

Editor: Daniel Agus Prasetyo, Head of Public Relations and Corporate Communications

About the author:

Carlene Putri Darius is a Marketing Communications Officer at KOLTIVA with passion in sustainability and innovation, Carlene Putri Darius integrates her expertise in technology, marketing, and strategy to promote responsible and inclusive growth. With over three years of experience in consulting, branding, and digital communications, she crafts narratives that connect innovation, sustainability, and social impact for international audiences.

Fanny Butler is leading the business development and projects in Europe, Middle East and Africa. With 14 years of experience in sustainability for various tropical crops, she oversees project activities, and ensure a pro-active and pragmative approach to implement solutions in the field.

Resources:

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• Asante, P. A., Rahn, E., Anten, N. P. R., Zuidema, P. A., Morales, A., & Rozendaal, D. M. A. (2025). Climate change impacts on cocoa production in the major producing countries of West and Central Africa by mid-century. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 362, 110393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2025.110393 

• Hart, D. E., Yeo, S., Almaraz, M., Beillouin, D., Cardinael, R., Garcia, E., Kay, S. T., Lovell, S. T., Rosenstock, T. S., Sprenkle-Hyppolite, S., & Stolle, F. (2023). Priority science can accelerate agroforestry as a natural climate solution. Nature Climate Change, 13, 1179–1190. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01810-5

• Koltiva. (2026, January 20). How agroforestry delivers climate impact when design meets farmer-centred practice. https://www.koltiva.com/post/how-agroforestry-delivers-climate-impact-when-design-meets-farmer-centred-practice

• Solidaridad Network. (2025). The 2025 Cocoa Barometer. https://www.solidaridadnetwork.org/publications/the-2025-cocoa-barometer/

• World Cocoa Foundation. (2026). Securing Cocoa’s future in a changing world: Partnership Meeting programme. Retrieved from https://worldcocoafoundation.org/partnership-meeting/securing-cocoa-s-future-in-a-changing-world#programme